A POPULATION CENSUS AS A HISTORICAL SOURCE ON DATA ON POPULATION DYNAMICS IN NIZHNY NOVGOROD REGION (2002–2021)

DOI: 10.47026/2712-9454-2024-5-4-85-94

УДК 94(470)

ББК 63.3(2)64-3

Ivan V. ESIN

Key words: population census, demographic changes, migration flows, socio-economic development, educational structure, population of Nizhny Novgorod region, natural increase, demographic crisis, planning the social infrastructure, quality of life.

The population census is an important historical source, a statistical tool that enables to obtain objective and comprehensive data on the number and composition of the population in a country or region, which is crucial for forming the national policy, planning economic and social programs. Population censuses are conducted at regular intervals and help government agencies to assess the dynamics of demographic changes, including migration, birth rate, mortality, changes in the educational level and the earning capacity of the population. The information obtained is the basis for the strategic development of educational, health and social infrastructure and affects economic planning and the development of industry and the agricultural sector.

The purpose of the undertaken research is to study the data of population censuses in 2002–2021, their statistical processing and elucidation of the dynamics in various aspects of the socio-economic development of Nizhny Novgorod region.

The results of the population census make it possible to assess the socio-economic status of different population groups, their age and gender composition, educational level, language and nationality, necessary to formulate an effective state policy aimed at improving the lives of citizens and meeting their needs.

Materials and methods. This article is based on studying the complex of All-Russian censuses for the period 2002–2021. When writing this article, data on the state of the population in Nizhny Novgorod region were of particular importance. When preparing the article, first of all, concrete-historical and statistical methods of research were used, mathematical processing of quantitative data was carried out. In the historiographical aspect, the article is notable for its novelty and has practically no predecessors.

Research results. The analysis of the data from the population censuses of Nizhny Novgorod region for 2002, 2010 and 2021 revealed a steady decline in the population size, which decreased from 3.524 million to 3.119 million people. The main factors were negative natural increase due to high mortality and low birth rate, as well as intensive migration outflow, especially among young people. At the same time, demographic aging was recorded, expressed in an increase in the proportion of the elderly population. Changes in the educational structure show an increase in the number of people with higher and secondary specialized education, which does not compensate for the loss of the able-bodied population.

Conclusions. The study demonstrates that Nizhny Novgorod region is facing serious demographic problems, deepening due to natural decline and migration outflow. Aging of the population and disproportions in its age structure are increasing, despite the increase in the educational level. To stabilize the demographic situation and ensure the economic development of the region, comprehensive measures are needed for labour power intake, for improving the quality of life and supporting socio-economic activity.

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About the author

Ivan V. Esin – Post-Graduate Student, Department of History and Theory of State and Law, Nizhny Novgorod Institute of Management – branch of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Russia, Nizhny Novgorod (esin.i.v@yandex.ru).

For citations

Esin I.V. A POPULATION CENSUS AS A HISTORICAL SOURCE ON DATA ON POPULATION DYNAMICS IN NIZHNY NOVGOROD REGION (2002–2021). Historical Search, 2024, vol. 5, no. 4, pp. 85–94. DOI: 10.47026/2712-9454-2024-5-4-85-94 (in Russian).

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